Handicapping the Oscars - Best Director

There are three words that define Oscars 2017 and they're not #OscarsSoWhite. A year after the controversy that led to membership changes to the Academy (younger, more diverse voters in, older voters out), the mood is unusually tranquil as "La La Land" rules. The big question is just how many of its 14 nominations (tying with "All About Eve" and "Titanic" as the most a film has received) Damien Chazelle's musical romance will win. As far as the controversy, it appears to have been mitigated by the number of nominations for films that showed that black lives matter: "Moonlight," "Hidden Figures," "Fences" all have been cited with nominations in leading categories.

There is even a chance -- an outside chance -- that for the first time in history the acting categories could all be won by black actors. That can only happen if favorites Mahershala Ali ("Moonlight") and Viola Davis ("Fences") win in their respective supporting categories and Denzel Washington ("Fences") and Ruth Negga ("Loving") upset in theirs. That's a long-shot because a win by Negga would be a huge upset, though Washington's Actor Guild win increased his chances against frontrunner Casey Affleck ("Manchester by the Sea").

It could be because it is such a foregone conclusion that "La La Land" will win a number of leading categories that the buzz hasn't been as great as it has in past years. There are some tight races, but this is shaping up as the most no drama Oscars in some time. Nonetheless, the Oscars, which air Sunday night on ABC, remain must-see TV.

Over the next few days, EDGE's Oscar pundits Robert Nesti and Jason St. Amand will handicap the six leading categories, starting with Best Director.

Jason St. Amand

In any other year Barry Jenkins ("Moonlight"), Kenneth Lonergan ("Manchester by the Sea") and Denis Villeneuve ("Arrival") could easily walk away with the Oscar for Best Director. These three films have a confident vision and all borderline on being masterpieces. Unfortunately for them, they're up against Damien Chazelle this year and the behemoth that is "La La Land." Thanks to its massive number of noms, it seems destined that he win. While "La La Land" is up against some stiff competition, Chazelle's take on the modern musical is perfectly photographed and beautifully designed, resulting in a game-changing piece of art. Giving the gold to the young filmmaker is the right choice -- and will most definitely happen.

Robert Nesti

Is the success of "La La Land" indicative of audiences looking for a clever escapist entertainment as America braces for the first year of Trump? It was a relief to see a movie that squarely brings the musical into the 21st century. This is likely why Damien Chazelle will score the Best Director Oscar. He has already won the Golden Globe, the Director's Guild and the BAFTA in this category -- each a predictor for who will win the Oscar. But as Jason points out, there are legitimate contenders in this category that are up against an entertainment juggernaut. And "La La Land" is such a personal project for the boyish 32-year old director that its success is completely due to his vision. While Barry Jenkins is equally deserving of this award, expect Chazelle to take home his first Oscar.