Handicapping the Oscars - Best Picture

What will likely be a trending topic after the Oscars conclude Sunday night is the hashtag #OscarsSoPolitical.

This shouldn't come as a surprise. The contentious political atmosphere that continues to build in response to President Donald Trump's election has flavored every award show this year, most notably when Meryl Streep turned her acceptance speech at the Golden Globe into an eloquent critique of the president without mentioning his name. It is doubtful host Jimmy Kimmel will be as artful as the legendary actress -- expect a barrage of jokes aimed at the president, his family and his administration in Kimmel's monologue that will spill over into the acceptance speeches throughout the evening.

Trump's policies may have influenced one category: Best Foreign Film. When the nominations were announced, it appeared that the German entry "Toni Erdmann," a zany comedy about a dad trying to bond with his workaholic daughter through a series of pranks, was the favorite. But then came Trump's travel ban, which would have made it difficult, if not possible, for Asghar Farhadi, the director of the nominated "The Salesman," to attend the ceremony. In response to the ban, Farhadi turned down the invitation to come to the ceremony; but since then his film -- a searing account of the aftermath that a sexual assault has on a Tehran couple who are appearing in a production of "The Death of a Salesman" -- has moved up in polls and may take the Oscar.

What little suspense the ceremony will bring comes with counting down the number of awards "La La Land" will take. Conceivably it could be the biggest winner in Oscar history, which is leaving many "La La Land"-haters livid. It is surprising that the film has engendered such hate amongst its detractors, who see it as some sort of expression of sugar-coated sentimentality in the age of more gritty and socially aware films as "Moonlight" and "Fences." For them, it is not only not worthy, it's junk elevated to art, perpetuating the myth that white culture rules the world as it did in the 1950s, the decade whose films director Damien Chazelle evokes so lovingly in his modern musical. Will the audience-pleasing, socially conscious "Hidden Figures" pull off an upset? It is a possibility if the "La La Land"-backlash materializes.

EDGE's Jason St. Amand and Robert Nesti make their choice for Best Picture and list the nominees in preferential order, which was the way Academy members voted this year.

Jason St. Amand

Best Picture:

If Viola Davis winning in the Best Supporting Actress category is the easiest call of Oscars night then the unstoppable "La La Land" taking home the Hollywood's biggest award is the second easiest. Nominated for 14 Oscars, "La La Land" is the frontrunner in the Best Picture category. Though it has been somewhat villainized by La La Losers, the hate machine hasn't slowed down the film's momentum and many have made peace with the musical coming out on top. As always, there could be an upset but it seems unlikely. Though "Hidden Figures" recently surpassed "La La Land" at the box office it still has a narrow chance of winning -- voters who don't want to see "La La Land" take the big prize are split between the civil rights drama and the black/queer coming-of-age art film "Moonlight," which only improves the chances of "La La Land" of winning.

As an unashamed "La La Land" lover who doesn't buy into the false narrative at this year's Oscars, I will be glad to see the musical deservingly win (and hopefully many more awards) Sunday night. Below is my ranking of the Best Picture nominees.

1. "La La Land"
2. "Arrival" (A stunning and cerebral sci-fi film that offers a totally different viewing experience on a second viewing.)
3. "Moonlight" (A confidant and powerful film that doesn't try to relate to its audience but asks them to recognize the trials and tribulations of a very specific story.)
4. "Manchester By the Sea" (An emotional and heartbreaking film about how we deal with unexpected loss and the grey areas of death, from of the most talented filmmakers going, Kenneth Lonergan.)
5. "Hidden Figures" (Calculated and emotionally manipulative, "Hidden Figures" is just a fine film but because its mere existence is having positive impact on moviegoers -- plus its wonderful performances from its three leads -- makes it a worthy contender.)
6. "Fences" (It's not the best film among the crop of nominees but Viola Davis' performance elevates this otherwise average film into something noteworthy.)
7. "Lion" (The most Oscarbait-y movie of the year.)
8. "Hell or High Water" (With decent performances, this modern day western speaks to a specific crowd but it's as dry and dusty as south Texas air.)
9. "Hacksaw Ridge" (You lost me at "Hack.")

Robert Nesti

At first I was cool to "La La Land"; like, what's the fuss? To begin with, neither Emma Stone nor Ryan Gosling really can sing and dance. What are they doing in a musical? Then I saw it a second time, then a third, and succumbed to its glossy, Technicolored look, its jazz-infused score and the charming relationship between its two principals, who may lack the dancing skills of Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers but more than make up for it with their rapport. What director/writer Damien Chazelle does so well is pay homage to great musicals of the past, while re-engineering the genre for the new millennium. It's a considerable achievement that deserves to win Best Picture.

1. "La La Land"
2. "Moonlight" (An expressive, gorgeously cinematic look at the life of African-American man dealing with issues of masculinity, sexuality, drug addiction and his relationship with his community.)
3. "Manchester by the Sea" (Kenneth Lonergan's somber story of a man forced to face the ghosts of his past boasts the best original script of the year and one of its best performances by Casey Affleck.)
4. "Lion" (If all of "Lion" was a good as its first hour, it would have been the movie of the year. The rest is not, but the film remains a potent emotional potboiler that Oscar voters love.)
5. "Hidden Figures" (The true story of three black women whose contributions to the U.S. space race in the 1960s is uplifting, if pedestrian Hollywood fare. Could be the pic that upsets "La La Land.")
6. "Arrival" (A cerebral sci-fi film that is held together by its fine lead -- Amy Adams who was, curiously, passed over for a Best Actress nomination. Still, it left me cold.)
7. "Hell or High Water" (A present-day Western and social commentary in which two brothers became bank robbers to get back at the system.)
8. "Fences") August Wilson's play is filled with big emotions and big performances. Too big for my taste, but the stuff that is catnip for the Academy.)
9. "Hacksaw Ridge" (Mel Gibson's return to Hollywood grace that manages to be both a call for pacifism while pouring on the violence.)