Handicapping the Oscars - Best Actor/Supporting Actor

Of all the categories, the race for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor are the most up-in-the-air as we count down to the Oscars. Polls show movement in these categories as nominees gain strength, challenging current favorites. Can Casey Affleck pull off Best Actor or is Denzel Washington going to sneak in and take it? Is there a chance Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen or Ryan Gosling causes an upset?

One thing that's true about the Oscars is there always a surprise winner. Just last year heavily favored Sylvester Stallone lost to British actor Mark Rylance in the supporting actor category. And who could ever forget the look of pure surprise on the face of Adrien Brody when he took home the award in 2003 for "The Pianist," defeating the more favored Daniel Day-Lewis ("Streets of New York") and Jack Nicholson ("About Schmidt")?

This year the Supporting Actor category is the tightest with two nominees Dev Patel ("Lion") and Jeff Bridges ("Hell or High Water") closing in on frontrunner Mahershala Ali ("Moonlight"). The moment these winners are announced may provide the only drama of the night.

Jason St. Amand

Best Actor:

As mentioned above, the race for Best Actor at this year's Oscars is a narrow one. It's ostensibly a head-to-head match between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington. Affleck has a slight edge for his tortured sad guy performance in "Manchester by the Sea" and will likely defeat Washington's role as the bombastic Troy Maxson in "Fences." An Affleck win would be fine, and deserving, but I would be very pleased to see Ryan Gosling spark an upset (a major upset, given the "La La Land" backlash) and take home the gold for his role in "La La Land," as jazz piano man Seb.

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali is projected to win here -- and rightfully so as he's on the top tier of talent in this category. Though he's not won many of the awards that help forecast an Oscar win, Ali still has a good shot but it shouldn't be a huge surprise should Jeff Bridges ("Hell or High Water") or Dev Patel ("Lion") manages to carry out an undeserved coup. Though a long shot, Michael Shannon ("Nocturnal Animals") proved to be the better Texas sheriff in 2016 (sorry, Jeff). A win for Shannon would be fine by me.